As GDP rises, will hopes do the same?

Figures for July are out and look promising, particularly as the world is still largely in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. Patrick Brusnahan asks experts if the world can start becoming optimistic

Daniele Antonucci

Chief economist & macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank

The sequential pace of recovery is losing momentum. Even though GDP has risen for the third month in a row, it still has to make up for almost half of the lost output following the lockdown. The pick-up in Covid-19 cases and the return of containment measures to mitigate the virus outbreak mean that the easier part of the economic rebound is already behind us.

With some of the emergency measures to firms and workers now being scaled back, the risk of a relapse in growth has risen further. With monetary stimulus already very ample, additional fiscal stimulus is likely to be needed to support overall activity, with a focus on the sectors that have been particularly impaired by the public health restrictions.

Dean Turner

Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management

The sequential pace of recovery is losing momentum. Even though GDP has risen for the third month in a row, it still has to make up for almost half of the lost output following the lockdown. The pick-up in Covid-19 cases and the return of containment measures to mitigate the virus outbreak mean that the easier part of the economic rebound is already behind us.

With some of the emergency measures to firms and workers now being scaled back, the risk of a relapse in growth has risen further. With monetary stimulus already very ample, additional fiscal stimulus is likely to be needed to support overall activity, with a focus on the sectors that have been particularly impaired by the public health restrictions.

Rupert Thompson

Chief Investment Officer at Kingswood

The UK economy rebounded further in July with GDP rising 6.6% m/m. Activity has now recovered a little over half of the massive 26% fall seen between February and April but this still leaves the economy close to 12% smaller than it was prior to Covid. The pace of the recovery moderated in July and looks certain to slow significantly more over coming months as the initial boost from pent-up demand fades and the furlough scheme comes to an end. As the Chancellor has been keen to point out, the economy is far from out of the woods yet.