Covid-19 briefing

Powered by 

United States: The United States reported approximately 47.73 million confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases and an associated fatality rate of 1.61% as of November 22, 2021. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 59.1% of the total population is fully vaccinated as on November 21, 2021. Among these, 18.0% of the fully vaccinated population has also received booster doses. The business confidence remains high, as indicated by an increase in business confidence index to 101.74 in October 2021 from 101.67 in September 2021. As per the data from US Census Bureau, retail and food services sale showed a 1.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) increase in October 2021. However, the real estate sector is witnessing a slowdown, especially across new construction activities, as witnessed by a 0.7% m-o-m decline in the construction of privately-owned housing during October 2021. High inflation remains a major concern in the country.

India: India stands second in the list of total COVID-19 cases reported globally, with 34.51 million cumulative cases as of November 22, 2021. Around 28.9% of the entire population is fully vaccinated in the nation till November 20, 2021. The lending policies in the country remained liberal, thus strengthening the demand for credit from the various sectors including housing, retail, and small businesses. Data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicated that the non-food credit in India alone witnessed a 7.27% growth over the fortnight ended on November 5, 2021. The country continues to witness high inflation, as the wholesale price inflation rate rose to 12.54% in October 2021, from 10.66% in September 2021.

Brazil: The country has registered a total of 22.07 million COVID-19 cases as of November 22, 2021. About 60.4% of Brazil’s population is fully vaccinated as of November 20, 2021. The government has launched a mega vaccination campaign on November 20, 2021, to improve the vaccination drive in the country. Recent data release from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicated that Brazil ranked sixth globally in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) receipts during the first half of 2021. Various sectoral reports also indicated of a declining economic uncertainty in the country. During the current weekly revision exercise, the 2021 real GDP growth of Brazil has been revised upward to 4.95% from 4.81% of the previous weekly forecast. 

United Kingdom: United Kingdom’s total cumulative cases of COVID-19 stands at 9.89 million as of November 22, 2021. About 68.6% of the total population is fully vaccinated as of November 20, 2021. The consumer prices index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose to a year-on-year (y-o-y) 3.8% in October 2021, from a y-o-y 2.9% in September 2021. As sustained inflationary trend could impact the consumer spending and thereby the economic recovery in the country, an intervention in the form of a hike in the base rate is expected from the Bank of England over the next two months. The nation’s labour market shows a recovery as the employment rate increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter: to 75.4% during July-September 2021. Retail sector in the country is also witnessing a recovery: as indicated by a m-o-m 0.8% increase in UK retail sales volumes in October 2021. During the current weekly revision exercise, the 2021 real GDP growth of the nation has been revised upward to 7.01% from 6.97% of the previous weekly forecast.

IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.

The global economy is estimated to contract by 4.2% in 2020 and bounce back by 5.3% in 2021.